The Fundamentalist Islamic Future of Egypt: President Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt for more than a quarter century and has no designated successor
Egypt: The Future Islamofacist State:
Today's Egypt is Not Tomorrow's Egypt
Egypt: A word that conjures up images of Pyramids and Pharaohs; of Deserts and Oases; of Abu Simbel and Karnak. Unfortunately for the history buff, it also conjures up images of Cleopatra, Caesar and Mark Antony, and of Egypt under foreign control.
Today, Egypt is Egypt once again. A Different Egypt to be sure, and certainly not the Empire that it was. But what is Egypt today? First and foremost it is an Islamic Country, one that has been struggling to catch up with Western economic success. But it is not exactly a success story, and if the winds of Islamic fundamentalism keep blowing as they have, coupled as they are in Egypt with a people unimpressed with the governments achievements, then before long, Egypt will once again crumble into the dust of history.
For years, Egypt has tried to keep itself out of trouble with Israel and the West, even if only paying lipservice to it's commitments.
In April of 2007 Egypt threatened to cut off relations with Hamas if it didn't stop it's rocket attacks on Israel. Egyptian Intelligence Chief Gen. Omar Suleiman warned that Egypt would not side with the Palestinians if Israel launched a military operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (Egypt threatens to cut Hamas ties if rockets don't stop) [Khaled Abu Toameh - Jerusalem Post Apr. 25, 2007]
By November 2007, Israel was complaining that Egypt had not done enough to halt the arms flow into Gaza after Egypt took control of security along the Egypt-Gaza border the previous year, even though it signed an agreement with Israel to take responsibility for preventing arms smuggling along the corridor. (Egypt warns against Philadelphi bombing) [Nov 1 2007]
The lack of Egyptian political will ultimately saw the tables turn on Egypt by January of 2008. In my article Egypt / Israel : What's in a name? (Magic City) I pointed out the hypocrisy of political activists in their blaming Israel for all problems related to the Palestinians, and directed readers to the Jerusalem Post article [Jan 25, 2008] by Khaled Abu Toameh "Gazan masses foil attempt to seal off Rafah border", which tells the story of Egypt's current problems with the Palestinians. Egypt has accused the Palestinians of "provocations" at the border and warned them that it will not tolerate attacks on its troops. One particular line in that article went:
Egypt did not want to use force against the Palestinians for fear of being accused by the Arabs of taking part in the blockade on the Gaza Strip
More than a year earlier, (Nov 30, 2006) Zvi Mazel - former ambassador to Egypt - published an article in the Jerusalem Post entitled: Think like an Egyptian in which he asked: Why can't Egypt impose its interests on the Palestinians and push them towards a settlement? In answering his own question he wrote a number of things which I will attempt to summarize:
Egypt while the most important Arab country is not a strong country in terms of economics
Egypt uses a dead form of diplomacy form the 1960s and 70s while the radical Arab world does not bend to normal political pressures.
Hamas is playing with Israel and also Egypt.
Egypt is caught in a political quagmire wherein if they chase or kill terrorists it will be compared with Israel.
Egypt's problem with the Muslim Brotherhood correlates directly to their problem with Hamas.
The Egyptians are as afraid of terrorists as are the Israelis, but they also do not know how to deal with people who don't care about human lives.
The Gist of the article was that Egypt is really powerless to do much at all in bringing peace to the Middle East. In Addition to the telling line above about being caught in a quagmire, there was a throw away line that deserves some prominence, and it was this:
The secular Arab governments have fizzled and now the radical Muslims are working through preaching and charities to become the alternative force to the ruling groups. If this happens in Egypt, it is the worst situation possible.
Take a look at the date of that article, read that last quote again, and then consider the bottom line to this next article, published by New York times on February 17th 2008 - Dreams Stifled, Egypt's Young Turn to Islamic Fervor (You need to be a logged in Member to read this article)
The article talks about an impoverished Egyptian society, wherein young people, though fully qualified, cannot find reasonable employment, and as a result, are having to delay marriage and parenthood. Their depression is leading many to turn toward religion. Unfortunately, in that part of the world, religion = Islam, and Islam is everyday becoming more fundamentally religious, rejecting slowly but surely, the trappings of conservative westernization.
More than ever, Islam has become the cornerstone of identity, replacing other, failed ideologies: Arabism, socialism, nationalism. - "These people, the Islamists, they would be better than the fake curtain, the illusion, in front of us now."
Egypt has historically fought a harsh battle against religious extremism. But at the same time, its leaders have tried to use religion for their own political gains. The government of President Hosni Mubarak - whose wife, Suzanne, remains unveiled - has put more preachers on state television. Its courts have issued what amount to religious decrees, and Mr. Mubarak has infused his own speeches with more religious references.
"The whole country is taken by an extreme conservative attitude," said Mohamed Sayed Said, deputy director of the government-financed Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. "The government cannot escape it and cannot loosen it."
Here in Egypt and across the Middle East, many young people are being forced to put off marriage, the gateway to independence, sexual activity and societal respect. Stymied by the government's failure to provide adequate schooling and thwarted by an economy without jobs to match their abilities or aspirations, they are stuck in limbo between youth and adulthood.
With 60 percent of the region's population under the age of 25, this youthful religious fervor has enormous implications for the Middle East. More than ever, Islam has become the cornerstone of identity, replacing other, failed ideologies: Arabism, socialism, nationalism.
"Yes, I do think that Islam is the solution," Mr. Sayyid said, quoting from the slogan of the Muslim Brotherhood, a banned but tolerated organization in Egypt that calls for imposing Shariah, or Islamic law, and wants a religious committee to oversee all matters of state. "These people, the Islamists, they would be better than the fake curtain, the illusion, in front of us now."
Like most religious young people, Mr. Sayyid is not an extremist. But with religious conservatism becoming the norm - the starting point - it is easier for extremists to entice young people over the line. There is simply a larger pool to recruit from and a shorter distance to go, especially when coupled with widespread hopelessness.
"There are lots of psychological repercussions and rejection from society," said Hamdi Taha, a professor of communications at Al Azhar University who runs a government-aligned charity that stages mass weddings for older low-income couples. "This is actually one of the things that could lead one to terrorism. They despair. They think maybe they get nothing in this world, but they will get something in the other life."
His diploma qualified him for little but unemployment. Education experts say that while Egypt has lifted many citizens out of illiteracy, its education system does not prepare young people for work in the modern world. Nor, according to a recent Population Council report issued in Cairo, does its economy provide enough well-paying jobs to allow many young people to afford marriage.
If you go to the full 4 page article, you can't help but notice the process of religious change from non-religious to conservative to Radical. Egypt is failing it's people, most of whom are young. As life becomes harder and harder, the young are turning to faith. The more hopeless everything seems, the harder the people strive to please Allah, until finally, extremism no longer seems so extreme.
Egyptian mini-bus driver, Emad el-Kabir, 21, whom police sodomized, filmed his torture and transmitted it to the cell phones of the victim's friends in order to humiliate him, looks on behind the bars inside a courtroom on Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2007 in Cairo, where he was sentenced to three months in prison for `resisting authorities.'
Human rights activists say police brutality is deeply entrenched in Egyptian life.
"Torture in Egypt is just routine, exerted on everybody whether in political or criminal cases, and the police don't really feel any shame in practicing it," said Mohammed Zarie, head of the Human Rights Center for the Assistance of Prisoners.
Still, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a key US ally, is under mounting pressure for democratic freedoms and human rights, and the el-Kabir video, along with other less widely publicized videos of recent months, appear to have embarrassed authorities into action.
But some break the silence. In another well-publicized case, Mohammed el-Sharqawi, a pro-democracy activist arrested during a demonstration in Cairo over the summer, said he was raped by police while in custody, a claim his lawyer said was backed by a medical examination which hasn't been made public.
But activists say it will take much more than a few videos to change a security apparatus that has wide powers of arrest and infiltrate every corner of Egyptian life schools, political parties, newspapers and the civil service.
Hafez Abu Saada, secretary general of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights, said his group reports some 400 cases of alleged police abuse a year. He said 20 percent result in prosecutions, and convictions are much rarer.
EGYPTIAN police fired tear gas to break up a violent protest overnight by several thousand Bedouins in the Sinai desert after a shooting by a rival clan, police and witnesses said today.
"At least 4000 to 5000 residents took to the streets. They burned tyres and smashed shop windows," a police officer said of the rioting in north Sinai's main city of El-Arish.
According to residents, the incident erupted yesterday after a fight in El-Arish between young members of two rival clans, the Tarabin tribe based in central Sinai and the local Fawakhriya tribe.
He said that while rivalries between neighbouring clans regularly lead to fighting, yesterday's spontaneous protest "is an expression of the frustration felt by Bedouins due to the constant neglect by authorities".
Hassan Abdallah, a local resident who belongs to the left-leaning Tagammu party, said that protesters had blocked main roads and shouted anti-government slogans.
Bedouins have long complained of discriminatory policies and mistreatment by the authorities.
HUNDREDS of female students in headscarves demonstrated in the Egyptian city of Alexandria today to demand the dismissal of Culture Minister Farouk Hosni for his comments on headscarves.
Mr Hosni, an abstract painter known for his liberal views, said in an interview this month he saw the Islamic headscarf worn by most Egyptian women as retrogressive and unattractive.
The Muslim Brotherhood and other political groups have been calling for his resignation
At the demonstration in Alexandria the women said in a statement Hosni's remarks went beyond freedom of expression and amounted to insulting Islam and calling for libertinism.
Political Control - Terrorism - Muslim Brotherhood
Police arrested 73 members of the Muslim Brotherhood on Thursday, in what appeared to be a pre-emptive strike against the country's largest Islamic group ahead of elections and a key parliamentary debate, spokesman for the police and the Brotherhood said.
Police did not give a reason for Thursday's early morning detentions, but those arrested were mostly Brothers who were expected to stand in the April elections for the Shura Council, the upper house of parliament, as well as assistants to the group's legislators, said Abdel Gelil el-Sharnoubi, the editor of the Brotherhood's Web site.
"They also arrested a number of legislators' assistants in order to paralyze the lawmakers," el-Sharnoubi added.
President Hosni Mubarak has asked the legislature to amend 34 articles in the constitution as part of a political reform package. The opposition, of which the Brotherhood is by far the largest component, has criticized the amendments as doing little to advance democracy. One amendment would ban the formation of political parties with a religious foundation - a restriction clearly aimed at the Brotherhood.
Sarah Leah Whitson, the Middle East director of Human Rights Watch, accused the government of trying to crush Egypt's largest opposition movement.
"The government has shown once again that it cannot tolerate any criticism," she said.
About 135 Muslim extremists who spent more than a decade in Egyptian prisons have been released after signing statements renouncing violence, police officials said Monday.
Al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya, which in Arabic means Islamic Group, and to a lesser extent al-Jihad, which means holy war, were responsible for a violent campaign against the Egyptian regime in the 1990s. Neither has been involved in attacks in Egypt since.
Both groups were accused of participating in the 1981 assassination of President Anwar al-Sadat.
Al-Zawahri was jailed for his involvement in the assassination but was released in 1984. After his release, he left Egypt and helped form al-Qaida with Osama bin Laden in the late 1990s.
El-Sherif left Egypt in 1986 to go to Afghanistan. He later wound up in Yemen where he was arrested in 2001 and handed over to Egypt in 2004. He is serving a life sentence and was not one of the militants released by authorities.
Egypt has never disclosed an official figure of militants or political inmates in its prisons.
Controversial emergency laws imposed since Sadat's assassination give security forces broad powers - including great leeway in making arrests and detaining people indefinitely.
This has also been a bad week for journalists in Egypt and Jordan.
On Wednesday, a judge in Cairo convicted an Al-Jazeera producer on charges of "harming Egypt's national interest" and "falsely depicting events" for her work on a documentary exposing police abuse. The judge sentenced Howayda Taha Matwali, who also works as a reporter for the London-based daily Al-Quds al-Arabi, to six months in prison and fined her 20,000 Egyptian pounds ($3,516).
Matwali, who lives in Qatar, where Al-Jazeera is based, was sentenced in absentia. Her lawyer, Gamal Eid, called the trial a sham, saying the judge prevented the defense from presenting its case.
A Cairo court sentenced the editors of four outspoken tabloids to a year in prison for insulting President Hosni Mubarak and his ruling party, judicial officials said Thursday.
The editors, who all run a new generation of brash, tabloid style newspapers that have been pushing the boundaries of state press policy, will have to pay fines of 20,000 Egyptian pounds (US$3,500)
"The judge praised the president and his son and the ruling party while reading the verdict - it was unprecedented."
The articles in question included accusations that Egypt's ruling party is controlling the country with "iron and fire," slaughters its people and oppresses them and should be called "the party of disasters."
President Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt for more than a quarter century and has no designated successor, resulting in periodic scares over his health and the future of the country.
Several opposition and independent newspapers published stories for several weeks last month speculating on the poor state of the president's health, with al-Dustour even contending that Mubarak sometimes lapses into a coma.
The editors described Thursday's verdict and Eissa's upcoming trial as a new crackdown on the freedom of the press after a brief period of relative openness.
Over the past three years, new private-owned newspapers have flourished in Egypt, including many with a breathless tabloid style and a relaxed approach to facts, and have siphoned readers away from the staid government dailies and their relentless diet of official, regime-approved news.
"The regime is retreating from its only bit of progress which was to give some freedom to the press to reflect public opinion," Hammouda said. "Now the whole thing is turning around."
More than 20 Egyptian independent and opposition newspapers were not on newsstands Sunday as part of an effort to protest the country's crackdown on press freedom.
The crackdowns have raised an outcry from human rights groups and even criticism from the United States, Mubarak's top ally. White House press secretary, Dana Perino, last month said "these latest decisions appear to contradict the Egyptian government's stated commitment to expand democratic rights."
Mohammed Ali Ibrahim, the editor of another pro-government newspaper, Al Gomhuria, said the opposition newspapers halted publication for "personal issues" and never disappeared from newsstands in "protest against continued rising prices, unemployment and the housing crisis."
In a cramped jail cell in Alexandria, Egypt, sits a soft-spoken 22-year-old student. Kareem Amer was remanded to over a month in prison for allegedly "defaming the President of Egypt" and "highlighting inappropriate aspects that harm the reputation of Egypt." Where did Amer commit these supposed felonies? On his weblog.
For decades, the region's dictators maintained a monopoly on public information. Newspapers, radio stations, and national television broadcasts were nearly all owned by the state. These regime-controlled media outlets toed the government line, maligned political opponents, and blocked critical voices. By inverting the watchdog role of the press - where journalists expose, investigate, and question - what should be a critical independent institution was instead transformed into a mouthpiece for government propaganda.
The advent of blogs in the past few years, however, has reshaped the playing field.
Regimes accustomed to control have struggled to respond.
Protecting free speech in the Middle East hinges on the fate of young activists like Kareem Amer. Rather than embrace the religious establishment, he became a critic of discrimination against women and non-Muslims.
Although a human rights lawyer accompanied Amer to his interrogation, prosecutors made clear they were indicting Amer for his beliefs. "Do you fast on Ramadan?" they demanded. "Do you pray?" They even insisted he reveal his opinions on the Darfur crisis. Amer would not retract his blogposts, so prosecutors threw him in jail - and laughed at the human rights attorney present, openly mocking the concept of standing up for individual rights.
Amer's arrest - for writing on a website few people have ever read - comes as the future of the Middle East hangs in the balance. While recent years have witnessed a surge in young voices challenging the status quo, powerful forces are trying to close down that window of greater liberty. In the campaign to hold Egyptian authorities accountable for criminalizing free speech, much more than the fate of one young blogger is at stake.
Who and what will rule Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak leaves the scene?
Only thrice in the last 55 years has power changed hands at the top in Cairo: in 1952 to the military junta that brought forth Gamal Abdel Nasser; in 1970, when Anwar Sadat succeeded to the presidency on Nasser's death; and in 1981, when Mubarak took over when Sadat was assassinated.
Mubarak was born on May 4, 1928.
How much longer will it be before he is unable to carry on as leader of a country whose population is around 80 million?
Egypt is an extremely centralized country where the president has even more relative power than in other states
The Mubarak era. No great achievements, but no disasters either. Actually.... he turned Egypt inward.
When Sadat died, vice president Mubarak stepped into his place. Today, there is no vice president. The name one most hears spoken of as the next president is Mubarak's son, Gamal.
If Mubarak were to die or be disabled in the foreseeable future, there could be a real tussle over the pharoahship. The army might have its own ideas about who should be crowned, finding some suitable former general with political experience. Conflict at the top might destabilize the country. And even if Gamal emerged on the top, could he really handle the job?
EGYPT HAS serious troubles. The Muslim Brotherhood is becoming stronger. What has passed for "liberal" opposition agrees with the Islamists
..demagogues to the right and left, terrible living conditions, no jobs, inadequate housing and few prospects for improvement...
It is very difficult to know what will happen in Egypt's near future except that everything is about to change. The most certain event will be President Hosni Mubarak's death, but what will happen then is anyone's guess. It seems to me however that the possibilities are limited.
1. The Status Quo will remain - not the best scenario given the complaints mentioned in this article
2. Egypt will be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood or something similar and turn into a rigid, rabid war mongering fundamentalist Islamic state.
3. Someone strong, powerful and commanding will take the helm and, resisting all influences and pressures, will reject both fundamentalism in both it's religious and political forms, and carve out for Egypt a place in the modern world.
Which one would you bet on?
At the end of the day however, Egypt's problems are it's own problems. It has nothing to do with us in the west. Unless of course in addition to Afghanistan and Iraq, and perhaps Iran and Korea, the U.S.A. decides that it needs to disarm Egypt's nuclear capabilities. 'Apocalyptic scenario' if Egypt, Saudis pursue atomic programs (Nov 9 2007 Jerusalem Post)
Egyptian and Saudi Arabian intentions to begin or revive their nuclear programs in the face of Iran's continued race toward nuclear power present an "apocalyptic scenario" for Israel as well as for the rest of the world, Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
Lieberman's remarks came a week after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced a decision to restart his country's nuclear program. On Wednesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that his country had begun operating 3,000 centrifuges for the enrichment of uranium.
Oh Well! As the Chinese say: It doesn't matter - it's not important - don't worry about it.
R.P.BenDedek is from Brisbane Australia and is the author of 'The King's Calendar: The Secret of Qumran' at http://www.kingscalendar.com His academic articles set forth Apologetics for and results of his discovery of an "artificial chronological scheme" running through the Bible, Josephus, the Damascus Documents of the Dead Sea Scrolls, and Seder Olam Rabbah.
He writes photographic 'Stories from China' and social editorial commentaries, both at KingsCalendar, and as a contributing newspaper columnist. He currently teaches Conversational English in China and in addition to his English Lessons at KingsCalendar, he has created specific sites for Students of English.
