The track record of Western national security and foreign policy makers documents such shortsightedness: a tendency to sacrifice long term considerations, complexity, principles and interests on the altar of short term, stage 1 convenience and oversimplification. They ignore the glaring writing on the wall and lessons of the recent past. "Peace in our time" - and not "thinking beyond stage 1" -- has shaped the US zeal to make a deal with the Ayatollahs.
Beware of stage 1 thinking policy makers
By Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger (8:46 PM 7/17/2015 Beijing Time)
National security and foreign policy makers should study a critical lesson of the medical profession: The failure to think beyond the stage 1 effect of painkillers may solve short-term problems, but will trigger long-term health risks: addiction, organ damage, nausea, headaches, dizziness, memory impairment and decreased cognitive performance.
National security and foreign policy makers should, also, heed the following observation by Thomas Sowell: "when most voters do not think beyond stage 1, many elected officials have no incentive to weigh what the consequences will be in later stages.... These reactions would lead to consequences much less desirable than those at stage one.... Most thinking stops at stage 1...." Sowell argues that "basic economics is generally misapplied because politicians think only in stage 1 -- the immediate result of an action, without determining what happens next. Many politicians cannot see beyond stage one because they do not think beyond the next election."
However, the track record of Western national security and foreign policy makers documents such shortsightedness: a tendency to sacrifice long term considerations, complexity, principles and interests on the altar of short term, stage 1 convenience and oversimplification. They ignore the glaring writing on the wall and lessons of the recent past.
The late Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye, detected the shortsightedness and self-destructive conduct of Israeli and US policy-makers regarding the Palestinian issue. He lamented his own participation -- at the request of President Clinton - in the September, 1993 signing ceremony of the Oslo Accord: "While most participants rejoice the Rabin-Arafat handshake of the moment, I fear that in the long run it could lead to a funeral procession of the Jewish State."
Contrary to Senator Inouye, Israeli and US policy-makers did not weigh the long term consequences. Israel's eagerness to conclude the Oslo Accord with Mahmoud Abbas and Arafat was a stage 1, short-lived pain reliever. As expected by Inouye, the snappy stage 1 was succeeded by a second stage and long term national security predicaments: "organ damage" (unprecedented Palestinian non-compliance, hate-education and terrorism), "headaches" (intensified international pressure), "dizziness" (eroded posture of deterrence), "memory impairment, nausea and decreased cognitive performance" (addiction to further sweeping concessions, to the PLO and Syria, by Prime Ministers Rabin, Peres, Barak, Sharon, Olmert and Netanyahu, as well as US Presidents Clinton and Obama), recklessly ignoring the thundering Palestinian mission statement, featured prominently in Mahmoud Abbas' school text books, mosques and media: It's the existence -- not the size -- of Israel!
"Peace in our time" - and not "thinking beyond stage 1" -- has shaped the US zeal to make a deal with the Ayatollahs.
US policy makers assume that a nuclear Iran would act rationally and could be contained. They suppose that a constructive agreement could be achieved at stage 1 without a dramatic, long term transformation of the nature of the Ayatollahs. They underestimate the deep roots of the overtly anti-US, apocalyptic, terroristic, subversive, expansionist, supremacist, megalomaniacal, repressive, deceitful and non-compliant nature of the Ayatollah regime.
Therefore, they assume that, just like the USSR, a nuclear Iran would be deterred by MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction). However, unlike the USSR the Ayatollahs are driven by martyrdom and apocalypse. They are enticed -- not deterred -- by MAD. A conventional Iran is controllable, but a threshold Iran would be chaotically uncontrollable.
US policy makers focus on a stage 1 agreement with the Ayatollahs, and not on the staggering second stage cost to vital interests of the US, which is the prime target for the Ayatollahs. The cost to the US is enunciated by the size 40 font, bold letters of the heinous anti-US writing on the Ayatollah Wall, which was erected in 1979. It is reflected by the Ayatollahs' track record, domestically, regionally and globally, including the annual November 4 "Death to America Day," featuring the burning of US flags and photographs of US presidents.
Stage 1 thinking policy making could produce an uplifting ceremony in Lausanne. However, the succeeding stages would transform the Ayatollahs to a threshold nuclear power, compounding the existing lethal threats to global sanity, paving the road to the first ever nuclear war.
A regime change in Jordan would exacerbate Palestinian terrorism, possibly forging a radical bloc from Iran to the Jordan Valley, posing a clear and present danger to the relatively pro-US regimes in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman and Egypt.
Israeli Arabs strongly oppose Defense Minister Liberman’s land – not population – swap proposal, which stipulates the transfer of Arab-majority land in Israel to the Palestinian Authority, while Jewish majority land in Judea & Samaria (the West Bank) would be transferred to Israel. They are determined to remain Israeli citizens, rather than become subjects of the Palestinian Authority.
In order to avoid the failed Middle East track record of all US Presidents, since 1948, President Trump should refrain from – rather than repeat – the systematic errors committed by his predecessors. They were misguided by the political correctness and conventional “wisdom” of the US State Department, which courted...
Since 2004 he has been writing academic articles, social commentaries and photographic 'Stories from China' both here at KingsCalendar, and formerly as a contributing columnist at Magic City Morning Star News (Maine USA) where from 2009 to 2015 he was Stand-in Editor. He currently has a column at iPatriot.com and teaches English to Business English and Flight Attendant College Students in Suzhou City Jiangsu Province People's Republic of China.)
BenDedek originally created the site to publicize his research results into the Chronology of Ancient Israel. Those results were published under the title: 'The King's Calendar: The Secret of Qumran.' Whilst there have been many attempts to solve the chronological riddle of the Bible's synchronisms of reigns of the kings of Israel and Judah and their synchronism with other Ancient Near Eastern Nations, no other research is based on a simple mathematical formula which could, if it is incorrect, be disproved easily. To date, no one has been able to dismiss the mathematical results of this research.
Free to air Academic articles set forth Apologetics for and results of his discovery of an "artificial chronological scheme" running through the Bible, Josephus, the Damascus Documents of the Dead Sea Scrolls, and Seder Olam Rabbah. Check the Chapter Precis Page to see details of each chapter and to gain access to the Four Free to Air Chapters
(The Download book does not contain a section on Seder Olam)
Definition: King's Calendar Chronological Research
The Premise: Between the 5th and 3rd centuries BCE (but continuing down to at least 104 BCE), Sectarian redactors transcribed the legitimate 'solar year' chronological records of Israel and Judah, into an artificial form, with listed years as each comprised of 12 months of 4 weeks of 7 days, or 336 days per year, thus creating a 13th artificial year where 12 solar years existed.
When the Synchronous Chronological Data provided in the Books of Kings and Chronicles for the Divided Kingdom Period are measured in years of 336 days, the synchronisms actually align. [Refer to Appendix 5. to see how it synchronises the Divided Kingdom Period]