Notwithstanding the uninspiring slate of Republican candidates, and the self-destruct Republican presidential primaries, recent public opinion polls highlight the uphill challenge facing President Obama's reelection campaign and the Democratic Party's attempt to sustain its Senate majority and regain the House majority. The November 2012 election will determine the House and Senate majorities in Congress, which is co-equal to the White House in shaping domestic, foreign and national security affairs. It was Congress which terminated the US military involvement in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos (the "Eagleton Amendment"), Angola (the "Clark Amendment") and Nicaragua (the "Boland Amendment")
Grasping the American state of mind constitutes a prerequisite for a proper assessment of US domestic politics in general and the November 2012 presidential and congressional races in particular.
Recent public opinion polls reaffirm that the US is a center-right nation, and that "Micropolitan America," Main Street, K-Mart, Fox News, radio talk show hosts, the Wall Street Journal and the local "Gazettes" are as important - in shaping the US political scene - as are "Metropolitan America," Wall Street, K Street, CNN and the three major networks, NPR radio and the New York Times.
Notwithstanding the uninspiring slate of Republican candidates, and the self-destruct Republican presidential primaries, recent public opinion polls highlight the uphill challenge facing President Obama's reelection campaign and the Democratic Party's attempt to sustain its Senate majority and regain the House majority.
According to a January 12, 2012 Gallup poll, conservatives have become the single largest group (40%) in the US, consistently outnumbering moderates (35%) since 2009 and outnumbering liberals (21%) by 2-to-1. "This marks the third straight year that conservatives have outnumbered moderates, after more than a decade in which moderates mainly tied or outnumbered conservatives."
Gallup determined that Independents -- who make up the largest political group in the US - increasingly identify themselves as conservative (35%), less as liberal (20%), while the percentage of moderate independents is trending downward (41%).
There are, possibly, more "Blue Dog Democrats" (which are targeted by Republicans for a switchover) than liberal Democrats, since Democrats consist of 40% liberals, 38% moderates and 20% conservatives.
At the same time, the percentage of moderate Republicans fell from 31% to 23%, while conservative Republicans have grown 10% since 2002, from 62% to 72%.
While a plurality (40%) of young adults are moderate, conservative and liberal young adults are 28% each. By contrast, a plurality of all older age groups (40% or more) is conservative, about a third is moderate and no more than 21% is liberal. In other words, the upward conservative trend since 2002 has occurred primarily among adults 30 and older.
The aforementioned Gallup findings provide the background to - and are consistent with - a series of data published by the January 14, 2012 Rasmussen Report. For example, 55% of likely voters consider the President more liberal than they are, and just 27% feel that the president has about the same ideological views as they do. Moreover, 41% of the likely voters strongly disapprove - and 22% strongly approve - of President Obama's performance. Overall, 46% somewhat approve of the President's performance, while 53% at least somewhat disapprove. 47% of likely U.S. voters think that the Republican candidate is most likely to beat President Obama, while 39% expect the incumbent to win reelection.
A January 9, 2012 Rasmussen Report indicates that 54% of likely voters favor a repeal of ObamaCare, while 39% at least somewhat support the health reform. Furthermore, an October, 2011 Rasmussen Report found that 70% favor individual choice over government standards for health insurance.
Congressionally, 44% of likely U.S. voters would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. A January 2, 2012 Rasmussen Report contends that the number of Republicans increased by a percentage point in December (35.4%), while the number of Democrats fell back two points (32.7%) to the lowest level ever recorded by the Rasmussen Report.
The American state of mind constitutes the foundation of US domestic politics, as well as US foreign policy in general, and the unique US-Israel bond in particular. Israeli leaders would benefit, substantially, from studying the significance of the aforementioned Gallup and Rasmussen public opinion polls.
The November, 2012 election to all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats will determine the capability of the elected, or reelected, President to operate in a system which features the strongest legislature in the world, equal in power to the President, the most authentic representative of the American constituent and a systematic supporter of the Jewish State.
At this stage, the House Republican majority of 242:192 (one vacancy) seems to be secure. However, the Senate Democratic majority of 53:47 is increasingly vulnerable with the retirement of 6 Democrats, compared with 2 Republicans; the 23 Democratic contested Senate seats, compared with only 10 Republican seats; and the high vulnerability of 8 Democratic, compared with 2 Republican, Senate seats. In fact, the retirement of Centrist "Blue Dog" Democrats, in both chambers, could reflect their own polling, thus spelling a potential trouble for President Obama's reelection.
The November 2012 election will determine the House and Senate majorities in Congress, which is co-equal to the White House in shaping domestic, foreign and national security affairs. It was Congress which terminated the US military involvement in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos (the "Eagleton Amendment"), Angola (the "Clark Amendment") and Nicaragua (the "Boland Amendment"); forced the USSR/Russia to open its gates to emigration (the "Jackson-Vanick Amendment"); cut foreign aid to Turkey and Chile; restructured the US intelligence community; caused the cancellation of the AWACs sale to Iran and trimmed the sale of Hawk and Sidewinder missiles to Jordan and Saudi Arabia; played a lead role in toppling the White Regime in South Africa; authorized the 1991 and the 2003 wars against Iraq; determined the date of the Somalia evacuation; refrained from ratifying the 1999 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; extended emergency assistance to Israel in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War, in defiance of President Bush and Secretary of State Baker; etc.
US legislators prefer to yield the international arena to the President, and be preoccupied with district, state and national issues, which are critical to their constituents and to their reelection. However, Congress reveals its powerful co-determining muscle in the international arena whenever urged by constituents and when Presidents abuse the Executive power, mislead Congress or follow policies which are opposed by most legislators.
The Congressional clout has grown dramatically since the Vietnam War, Watergate, Iran Gate and globalization. These milestones have enhanced the involvement of most legislators in international issues, have upgraded the oversight capabilities of Congress, have dramatically elevated the quality and quantity of Capitol Hill staffers, and have restrained the presidency.
Congress derives much of its power from the decentralized federal system, the centrality of the constituent, the effective separation of (equal) powers, the total independence of the Legislature, and the elaborate system of checks and balances, which are designed to prevent the tyranny of the Executive and maintain a limited government. Congress - which possesses the "power of the purse," the jurisdiction of oversight, advice and consent and the "congressional veto" - has the authority to change, suspend, reverse, direct and initiate policies, prevent senior presidential appointments, reject treaties and add and eliminate government departments and agencies.
In contrast to prime ministers and presidents in the parliamentary systems, US presidents are not omnipotent Executives, but one of three equal branches of government. US presidents are very powerful and -unlike the diversified views of the Legislature - they is are a one man Executive. But, the Presidents are not super-legislators, do not determine the legislative agenda, do not crown congressional leaders and committee chairmen and do not set the list of congressional candidates. US Presidents execute policies which are legislated by Congress, whose loyalty to the constituent, the constitution and the legislative process supersedes loyalty to the President and to the political party.
While the President is the Commander-in-Chief, article 1 of the US constitution (reinforced by the 1973 War Powers Act) stipulates that Congress shall have the power to declare War. Congress has the power to initiate, authorize and terminate, while the President executes.
In 1992, I was told by then Majority Leader, George Mitchell: "Didn't you brief our distinguished Israeli guest that the US is not a monarchy and that Congress is co-equal to the Administration?!" Hopefully, future Israeli leaders will realize that next to a powerful US President, there is an equally-powerful Congress - the most genuine representative of the American People and a bastion of support for enhanced US-Israel cooperation.
According to a June, 2012 study by the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB), 72% of 15-49 year old Palestinian married women prefer to avoid pregnancy, as are 78% in Morocco, 71% in Jordan, 69% in Egypt and Libya, 68% in Syria, 63% in Iraq and 61% in Yemen. The PRB study states that "a growing number of women are using contraception, as family planning services have expanded in the Arab region." The unprecedented fertility decline in the Muslim world was documented in June, 2012 by Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, a leading demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, and Apoorva Shah of the Hoover Institute.
US global leadership. Thou shall embrace US global leadership, underscoring US freedom of unilateral action, rather than subordinating US policy to multilateral considerations. The US - not the UN or any international order - is the dominant quarterback of international relations. US global leadership is critical for its economic, homeland security and military concerns. It bolsters posture of deterrence, providing a tailwind for allies, thus constraining clear and present threats posed by rogue/terrorist Islamic regimes. On the other hand, US withdrawal is interpreted as weakness, emboldening adversaries, weakening allies, fueling clear and present dangers and facilitating the recurrence of 9/11
In 1830, New York University Prof. George Bush, the great-granduncle of G.H.W. Bush, considered one of the most profound American scholars of the mid-19th century, published "The Life of Mohammed". He was not concerned about political correctness, was low on delusion and top heavy on realism. His 1830 reference to the Islamic threat was consistent with the 2012 state of intra-Muslim atrocities, hate-education, tyranny, anti-US stormy Arab winter, intolerance of criticism, global Islamic terrorism in general and suicide bombing in particular.
The murder of nearly 3,000 persons on 9/11 was planned while President Clinton extended his hand to the Muslim World, in general, and to the Palestinians, in particular. The October 12, 2000 murder of seventeen USS Cole sailors occurred when Clinton brokered unprecedented Israeli concessions to the Palestinian. The August 27, 1998 murder of 257 persons at the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania took place while Clinton brutally pressured Prime Minister Netanyahu. The 1995/6 murder of 19 US soldiers in Riyadh and Khobar Towers was carried out while Clinton courted Arafat. The December 21, 1988 murder of 270 PanAm-103 passengers took place a few months following the groundbreaking recognition of the PLO by Reagan. The April/October 1983 murder of 300 Marines at the US Embassy and the Marines headquarters in Beirut occurred while Reagan interfered with Israel's hot pursuit of the PLO, blasting Israel for its war on PLO terrorism.
Definition: King's Calendar Chronological Research
The Premise: Between the 5th and 3rd centuries BCE (but continuing down to at least 104 BCE), Sectarian redactors transcribed the legitimate 'solar year' chronological records of Israel and Judah, into an artificial form, with listed years as each comprised of 12 months of 4 weeks of 7 days, or 336 days per year, thus creating a 13th artificial year where 12 solar years existed.
When the Synchronous Chronological Data provided in the Books of Kings and Chronicles for the Divided Kingdom Period are measured in years of 336 days, the synchronisms actually align. [Refer to Appendix 5. to see how it synchronises the Divided Kingdom Period]
About the KingsCalendar Publisher
R.P.BenDedek is the owner and Editor of KingsCalendar.com which was originally set up to publicize his research results into the Chronology of Ancient Israel. Those results were published under the title: 'The King's Calendar: The Secret of Qumran'.
Whilst there have been many attempts to solve the chronological riddle of the Bible's synchronisms of reigns of the kings of Israel and Judah and their synchronism with other Ancient Near Eastern Nations, no other research is based on a simple mathematical formula which could, if it is incorrect, be disproved easily. To date, no one has been able to dismiss the mathematical results of this research.
Free to air Academic articles set forth Apologetics for and results of his discovery of an "artificial chronological scheme" running through the Bible, Josephus, the Damascus Documents of the Dead Sea Scrolls, and Seder Olam Rabbah.
During the current economic downturn, this book has been drastically reduced in price but will eventually rise as the economy improves.
Check the Chapter Precis Page to see details of each chapter and to gain access to the Four Free to Air Chapters
R.P. BenDedek writes social commentaries and photographic 'Stories from China' both at KingsCalendar, and as a contributing columnist at Magic City Morning Star News in Maine USA.
(He has been teaching Conversational English in China since 2003 and currently (2013) is teaching in Suzhou City Jiangsu Province.)
